We are observing a rather curious situation in the markets: risky assets, whether cryptocurrency or shares of technology companies, were able to demonstrate strong growth in March, despite obvious problems in the global economy. It’s as if investors are tired of living in uncertainty and decided to start buying in the expectation that the quotes will not fall below the February lows. Here, perhaps, the main catch may be hidden: irrational optimism almost always led to sad consequences for investors, regardless of when exactly it manifested itself – at the moment when prices were near record highs or during a correction.
The current growth of quotations should be treated as cautiously as possible, because the market is irrational. It means that the situation when the big players drive the rest into positions only in order to knock them out and deprive them of the desire to make purchases as the price decreases further is observed too often. Retail traders had enough time in March to convince themselves of further price growth and open a position. If now it turns out that BTC is not able to grow further and begins to lose value, then there will be no desire or strength to keep it from falling.
We expect quotes to fall to March lows near $37 thousand per coin.
The probability of the quotes leaving below, to $ 30 thousand, is estimated as extremely high.